Most traders stress the role of fundamental information and historical single-market price data in analyzing markets for the purpose of price and trend forecasting. Traders do need to look back at past price action to put current price action in perspective, but they also need to look forward to anticipate what will happen to prices if their analysis is to pay off in the real trading world.
To be able to look ahead with confidence, however, traders need to look in one other direction, and that is sideways to what is happening in related markets, which has a major influence on price action in a target market. What are the external market forces that affect the internal market dynamics – the intermarket context or environment in which the market you are trading exists?
Moving beyond single-market analysis
Intuitively, traders know that markets are interrelated and that a development that affects one market is likely to have repercussions in other markets. No market is isolated in today's global financial system. However, technical analysis has traditionally emphasized single-market analysis, focusing on one chart at a time and failing to keep up with structural changes that have occurred in financial markets as the global economy has emerged with advances in telecommunications and increasing internationalization of business and commerce.
Many individual traders still rely upon the same types of mass-marketed, single-market analysis tools and information sources that have been around since the 1970s when I first started in this industry. And a large percentage of traders continue to end up losing their trading capital. If you’re still doing what the masses are doing, isn’t it likely that you’ll end up losing your hard-earned money, too?
In the forex markets especially, you cannot ignore the broader intermarket context affecting the market that you are trading. You still need to analyze the behavior of each individual market to see the double tops or broken trendlines or indicator crossovers that so many other traders are following because that's part of the mass psychology that drives price action. However, it is increasingly important that you factor into your analysis the external intermarket forces that influence each market being traded.
Historical roots
Intermarket analysis is certainly not a new development for traders, having roots in both the equities and commodities markets. You are probably familiar with equities traders who compare returns between small-caps and big-caps, one market sector versus another, a sector against a broad market index, one stock against another, international stocks versus domestic stocks. Portfolio managers talk about diversification as they try to achieve the best performance. Whether they are speculating for profits or arbitraging to take advantage of temporary price discrepancies, intermarket analysis in this sense has been part of equities trading for a long time.
Traders in the commodities markets have also been into intermarket analysis for a long time, trading spreads that have a reliable track record. Farmers have been involved in intermarket analysis for years although they may not have thought of what they do in those terms. When they calculate what to plant in fields where they have several crop choices – between corn and soybeans, for example – they typically consider current or anticipated prices of each crop, the size of the yield they can expect from each crop and the cost of production in making their decision. They do not look at one market in isolation but know that what they decide for one crop will likely have a bearing on the price of the other, keeping the price ratio between the two crops somewhat in line on an historical basis.
The price relationships of corn to soybeans or hogs to cattle or gold to silver or T-bonds to T-notes have been the subject of intra-commodity and inter-commodity spread analysis and have been an integral part of technical analysis of the commodities markets for decades, long before John Murphy and I brought the term "intermarket analysis" into vogue.
The commodities markets, in turn, have a tremendous effect on the financial markets such as Treasury notes and bonds, which have a powerful effect on the equities markets, which have an effect on the value of the U.S. dollar and forex markets, which has an effect on commodities . . . The ripple effect through all markets is sort of a circular cause-and-effect dynamic involving inflationary expectations, changes in interest rates, corporate earnings growth rates, stock prices, forex fluctuations. You can hardly name a market that isn't affected by other markets or, in turn, doesn’t affect other markets. Whatever the market, assets tend to migrate toward the one producing or promising the highest return. That's as true for forex as any other market.
You have probably heard the expression, "If the U.S. economy sneezes, the rest of the world catches cold" or that the health of the U.S. economy is the engine that drives the global economy. It works both ways as a sneeze elsewhere in the world can have a significant impact on U.S. markets, as was evident in the Asian financial crisis in 1997 and other incidences over the years that have provided proof, if any was still needed, of how linked today's global markets are.
Intermarket analysis: The next logical step
So, a quantitative approach to implement intermarket analysis, which has been the basis of my research since the mid-1980s, is neither a radical departure from traditional single market technical analysis nor an attempt to undermine it or replace it. Intermarket analysis, in my opinion, is just the next logical developmental stage in the evolution of technical analysis, given the global context of today’s interdependent economies and financial markets.
Bottom line: If you want to trade forex markets today, you have to use a trading tool or adopt an approach or trading strategy that incorporates intermarket analysis in one way or another. An important aspect of my ongoing research involves analyzing which markets have the most influence on each other and determining the degree of influence these markets have on one another.
Hurricaneomic analysisTM is a perfect example of the inter-connectedness of events and markets and how nothing can be looked at in isolation. Take the spate of hurricanes that hit the Gulf Coast and Florida in 2005. They did not simply cause local damage to the economy of those regions. On the contrary, there are hurricaneomic effects that will ripple throughout the world economy for months and years to come, impacting the energy markets, agricultural markets, building materials including lumber, the federal deficit, interest rates, and, of course, the forex market as it pertains to the U.S. dollar. So, hurricaneomic analysis goes hand-in-hand with intermarket analysis in looking at events such as natural disasters and their effects on the global financial markets.
Our research in the ongoing development of VantagePoint since its introduction in 1991 indicates that, if you want to analyze the value of the euro versus the U.S. dollar (EUR/USD), for instance, you not only have to look at euro data but also at the data for these other related markets to find hidden patterns and relationships that influence the EUR/USD relationship.
• Australian dollar/U.S. dollar (AUD/USD)
• Australian dollar/Japanese yen (AUD/JPY)
• British pound
• Euro/Canadian dollar (EUR/CAD)
• Gold
• Nasdaq 100 Index
• British pound/Japanese yen (GBP/JPY)
• British pound/U.S. dollar (GBP/USD)
• Japanese yen
When you are trading the USD/JPY forex pair, you need to take into account another set of intermarket relationships including the following markets:
• 5-year U.S. Treasury notes
• Euro/Japanese yen (EUR/JPY)
• Gold• Euro/Canadian dollar (EUR/CAD)
• Euro/U.S. dollar (EUR/USD)
• British pound/Swiss franc (GBP/CHF)
• Crude oil• Nikkei 225 stock average
• S&P 500 Index
Many market inter-relationships are obvious, but others may seem more distant and unrelated, such as the importance of stock indices, U.S. T-notes or crude oil prices on pricing of the USD/JPY forex pair. Research has verified that these related markets do have an important influence on a target forex market and can provide early insights into the forex market's future price direction .
Monday, April 6, 2009
Intermarket Analysis of Forex Markets
Forex Rates
Foreign currency exchange rates are what it costs to exchange one country’s currency for another country’s currency. For example, if you go to England on vacation, you will have to pay for your hotel, meals, admissions fees, souvenirs and other expenses in British pounds. Since your money is all in US dollars, you will have to use (sell) some of your dollars to buy British pounds.
Assume you go to your bank before you leave and buy $1,000 worth of British pounds. If you get 565.83 British pounds (£565.83) for your $1,000, each dollar is worth .56583 British pounds. This is the exchange rate for converting dollars to pounds.
If £565.83 isn’t enough cash for your trip, you will have to exchange more US dollars for pounds while in England. Assume you buy another $1,000 worth of British pounds from a bank in England and get only £557.02 for your $1,000. The exchange rate for converting dollars to pounds has dropped from .56583 to .55702. This means that US dollars are worth less compared to the British pound than they were before you left on vacation.
Assume that you have £100 left when you return home. You go to your bank and use the pounds to buy US dollars. If the bank gives you $179.31, each British pound is worth 1.7931 dollars. This is the exchange rate for converting pounds to dollars.
Theoretically, you can convert the exchange rate for buying a currency to the exchange rate for selling a currency, and vice versa, by dividing 1 by the known rate. For example, if the exchange rate for buying British pounds with US dollars is .56011, the exchange rate for buying US dollars with British pounds is 1.78536 (1 ÷ .56011 = 1.78536). Similarly, if the exchange rate for buying US dollars with British pounds is 1.78536, the exchange rate for buying British pounds with US dollars is .56011 (1÷ 1.78536 = .56011). This is how newspapers often report currency exchange rates.
As a practical matter, however, you will not be able to buy and sell the currency at the same price, and you will not receive the price quoted in the newspaper. This is because banks and other market participants make money by selling the currency to customers for more than they paid to buy it and by buying the currency from customers for less than they will receive when they sell it. The difference is called a spread and is discussed later in this booklet.
Fundamental Analysis On Forex Trading
It has become imperative for every forex trader to learn how to predict the price trend and which method or software is the best.
When you do forex trading, it is very important to understand the difference between fundamental analysis and technical analysis. A quick explanation of the difference among the two types of analysis is: fundamental analysis focuses on money policy, government policy and economic indicators such as GDP, exports, imports etc within a business cycle framework while technical analysis focuses on price action and market behavior, especially on chart and technical indicators.
Needless to say both schools are equally disparaging about the other, and both believe their techniques are infinitely superior. But the reality is that it has become increasingly difficult to be a purist of either persuasion. Fundamentalists need to keep an eye on the various signals derived from the price action on charts, while few technicians can afford to completely ignore impending economic data, critical political decisions or the myriad of societal issues that influence prices.
Generally speaking, fundamental analysis can only judge which direction the market will move, and technical analysis can supply both direction and rough currency rate.
Keeping in mind that the financial underpinnings of any country, trading bloc or multinational industry takes into account many factors, including social, political and economic influences, staying on top of an extremely fluid fundamental picture can be challenging. Meanwhile, forecasting models are as numerous and varied as the traders and market buffs that create them. Different people can look at the exact same data and come up with two completely different conclusions about how the market will be influenced by it. At the end, some may make huge profit and some lose their money. You can not say fundamental analysis is easy.
Remember, fundamental analysis is a very effective way to forecast economic conditions, but not necessarily exact market prices. For example, when analyzing an economist's forecast of the upcoming GDP or employment report, you begin to get a fairly clear picture of the general health of the economy and the forces at work behind it. However, you'll need to come up with a precise method as to how best to translate this information into entry and exit points for a particular trading strategy.
Tip: If you are new to do forex trading and do not trade frequently, you can mainly use fundamental analysis for your trading.
Don't disturb yourself by information overload. Sometimes traders fall into this trap and are unable to pull the trigger on a trade. Normally, your first feel is the answer for you to do forex trading. At that time, you are sure which currency is strong and which country's economy is good. The more simple, the more useful.
However, trading a particular market without knowing a great deal about the exact nature of its underlying elements is unbelievable. You might get lucky and snare a few on occasion but it's not the best approach over the long haul.
For forex traders, the fundamentals are everything that makes a country tick. From interest rates and central bank policy to natural disasters, the fundamentals are a dynamic mix of distinct plans, erratic behaviors and unforeseen events. Therefore, it is very important to understand fundamental analysis and use them on forex trading.
Forex Trading System - A Key To Successful Forex Trading And Trading For A Living
Every one has his days when no matter how well he has planned out his trades, he may find some of his trades not performing to what is planned. It is only natural for one to feel upset, but for the follower of a forex trading system, making money or losing money from that trade is not the paramount objective.
Why is this so?
For the trader who employs a forex trading system, he can still face the losing trade with a smile, because he has had followed through the trading signals in a disciplined way, and it is only when a trader follows a system, he can be sure of keeping his losses small and to live to trade again another
day.
By using a forex trading system, the trader can have a cool head, and can face his trades rather unemotionally. He can execute his trades following pre-determined price levels of initial stop loss, trailing loss and computed and projected price profit.
He knows his tolerable level of loss, his threshold of pain - and of course, his risk to reward ratio even before he trades.
Now when a trader has a trading system and follows through the trading plan, making profits is a natural result when he makes a correct trade. But when his trade is wrong, his forex trading system will very quickly show him that the direction of his trade is wrong, so that he is out of the game fairly quickly.
I am often flabbergasted at some very broad claims of some traders who condemn day trading systems and relegate them to the garbage bin. When you look at forex trading systems, review them quickly by peer recommendation whenever possible. By peer recommendation, I mean you can ask existing traders their experience on the trading system, and how they are doing with it. Posting to the numerous reliable trading forums will allow you to receive some independent reviews fairly quickly. At the same time, my personal experience, and that of many other professional traders is that day trading can be profitable, though it is never easy to day trade. Otherwise, how is it that so many day traders are able to earn their income day trading the short swings of the market daily for a living? So it is important for you to have a broad view of forex trading systems if you are contemplating of learning or purchasing any trading system that relates to day trading.
If you ever wish to trade successfully, whether you day trade or swing trade, it is important that you have a trading system that will allow you to approach trading in a disciplined manner. It is only when you are a disciplined trader that you can see consistent large gains and small losses.
FOREX Trading Strategy - The Secret of Timing
Here we explain how to incorporate better market timing into your FOREX strategy - so that you can make bigger profits.
Most traders time their entry levels incorrectly, so here's the right way to do it:
Using Support and Resistance Correctly
A basic wisdom of market timing is ¡°buy low, sell high¡± - well, the reality is, if you try this in FOREX trading, you'll end up losing money. First, let's define what support and resistance means
A support level is a historical price that traders come in, and buy to ¡°support the market¡± ¨C and the more times it's tested, the more valid the support will be.
Conversely, a resistance level is a level on the charts that resisted prices from moving higher¡±- again the more times it's tested, the more significant it becomes.
Why Buy Low and Sell High doesn't Work Buy low, sell high¡± is accepted wisdom by the majority of traders - but this logic is fundamentally flawed - use it in FOREX trading, and you're
asking for trouble. Why? - If you wait for a pullback, you're going to miss some of the biggest moves.
Think about it - what if a currency starts to trend and doesn't pullback? (How often have you seen this?) If you're waiting for a pullback that never comes, you'll never get in on the trade ¨C and you'll miss a major opportunity.You Need to Feel Uncomfortable
When Trading in the FOREX market, you should usually feel uncomfortable (and that's why most traders don't make these trades) - as no one likesto buy or sell after the market has started trending - but doing this will make you money.
The fact is, the more comfortable you feel when entering a trade at support, the less likely the trade will be a big winner.
During any given year, most of the big moves in currencies, take place from new
MARKET HIGHS with NO pullback.
If you base your FOREX Trading strategy around waiting for a warm comfy entry, at key support, you¡¯re going to miss the biggest and most profitable trades ¨C so step away from the losing majority of traders.
Your FOREX trading strategy should give you a different mindset - most traders ¡°buy low and sell high¡± - so you should ¡°buy high and sell higher¡± ¨C i.e. you should be doing the opposite of what the crowd are doing.
Don't worry - most traders lose money, and their FOREX Trading strategy is based on the flawed logic we have just discussed - so not doing whatthey do makes total sense. Therefore, look for breakouts through support and resistance - and sell and buy respectively.
Its Tough Mentally - But it Makes Money!
Sure, it's hard to do - the majority don't agree with you - and no one likes to go against the majority. However, it's the right thing to do, to make your FOREX trading successful. Think about what we've just said, and you'll see it makes logical sense.
Has this Happened to You?
How many times do traders buy into support, and the market breaks support, stops them out and continues to decline. On the other hand, another common scenario is, price never get to support - it simply goes higher - and the trader misses the chance to get in on the trend.
This type of trading is tough mentally - that's why 90% of traders don't do it - they want to be comfortable - well being comfortable is great, but you'll lose money.
Breakouts work, and if you use them in your FOREX Trading strategy, you won't be comfortable on entry - but you'll make money - and that will more than compensate.
The way to succeed in FOREX trading is to do what the losing majority don't do - then you can join the elite 10% of traders who make the big profits - try it and see!
Forex Swing Trading with Elliott Wave
When evaluating the forex market for swing trade opportunities the focus is placed on predicting directional changes or continuations for a givencurrency pair. For this we rely on technical analysis.
In technical analysis, just as in fundamental analysis, there are lagging indicators and leading indicators. One of the most reliable tools used to predictforex market swings is Elliott Wave analysis. Elliott Wave analysis can be used to identify trends and countertrends, trend continuation or exhaustionand to evaluate the potential price targets of a trend.
You can apply Elliott Wave analysis to both long and short position swing trade set ups for your currency pairs.Elliott Wave theory is named after Ralph Nelson Elliott, who concluded that the markets moved in a repetitive pattern of waves. He attributed thisaction to the mass psychology of the market.
Elliott concluded that the market's movement was a direct result of the mass psychology of the time and that the stock market is a fractal. A fractal isan object that is similar in shape, but at different scales. A great example of a fractal in nature is a stalk of broccoli. The stalk and the individualbranches look exactly the same; just the branches are smaller in scale.Fractals just happen to form in accordance with Fibonacci ratios. Is this a coincidence?Elliott attributes this mass psychological move to the human trait of herding. Even though Elliott¡¯s theories were based on stock market pricemovements, it has been applied to evaluating Presidential approval ratings and fashion trends changes as well.
The conclusion, the market price actions are not the cause of economic growth or slow down, but the reflection of the mass psychology of investors. Ifthe mood of the investing public is upbeat then a bull market ensues. This is counter to what most individual perceive, that because there is a bullmarket the mood of the investing public is upbeat.
Elliott Wave patterns follow a sequence that the markets move up in a series of 3 waves and down in a series of 2 waves. This 3 wave impulse and 2wave corrective sequence form the foundation of the 5 Wave impulse pattern (the opposite is true in a downtrend).
The Elliott Wave Counts are as follows;
Wave 1 - Short Covering
Wave 2 - Pullback from Short Covering
Wave 3 - Major Rally Phase
Wave 4 - Institution Pause in the Rally
Wave 5 - Retail Buying
Wave 1 is usually the weakest of the impulse waves. It is a brief rally based on short covering of the bears from a previous move down. When Wave 1is complete, the currency pair sells off, creating Wave 2.
Wave 2 ends when the market fails to make new lows. You often see dominant reversals patterns form at the end of this wave signaling the being ofthe rally phase or Wave 3.
Wave 3 is the longest and strongest of the impulse waves. This signals strong currency buying or selling in the direction of the trend. This trend usuallystarts of slowly, but tends to accelerate as it breaks to new highs above the top of Wave 1.
Like any trend, especially a strong trend a correction will occur. Traders will begin to take profits and the currency pair will retrace. This signals thebeginning of Wave 4.
Again the currency pair will rally ushering in the Wave 5 rally. Wave 5 is typically supported by the retail traders and not institutional buyers (the herd)and tends to lack the momentum generated in the Wave 3 rally. This creates divergence that can be easily measured on any technical oscillator. Afterthe currency pair breaks to new highs above the previous Wave 3 high, the rally loses steam and changes trend.
This trend change can result in either a new 5 Wave impulse pattern or a corrective in nature.
Now that we know what the Elliott Wave analysis is, how would a currency trade using this analysis look like, just as an example?
Look to Wave 5 as the most reliably tradable impulse wave. The trade sets up as follows. Look for the Elliott Oscillator to pull back between 90% and140% of the Wave 3 high on a daily chart. This pullback should correspond to a 38%-62% Fibonacci retracement from the Wave 2 extension. Thissignal is the strongest when the Fibonacci retracement is between 38% - 50%.
Like any technical analysis tool you never want to employ an indicator as a stand alone analysis tool. A trigger and a confirming indicator are requiredas well.
Look for a trigger in candle patterns, such as Harami, Tweezers or Harami cross. There are a variety of software packages on the market that performElliott Wave counts and have other entry signal indicators as well.
Draw a regression channel on the Wave 4 retracement and look for a break above or below the channel as confirmation to enter the trade.
Place stops at the high of the Wave 1 advance, just below the 38% Fibonacci retracement level or where your individual trading plan dictates. Trailyour stops once the currency pair has advanced past the Wave 3 high. Look for reversal candle patterns like doji, hammers, shooting stars or hangingmans for signals that the wave is about to end or stall. A typical price target is 127% retracement of the Wave 4 low.
This is just a glimpse of how Elliott Wave analysis can be deployed to enhance your forex swing trade evaluations. Look more into the Elliott Wavetheory and other strategies as tools for increasing your forex swing trade opportunities.
Forex Options Market Overview
The forex options market started as an over-the-counter (OTC) financial vehicle for large banks, financial institutions and large internationalcorporations to hedge against foreign currency exposure. Like the forex spot market, the forex options market is considered an "interbank" market.However, with the plethora of real-time financial data and forex option trading software available to most investors through the internet, today's forexoption market now includes an increasingly large number of individuals and corporations who are speculating and/or hedging foreign currencyexposure via telephone or online forex trading platforms.
Forex option trading has emerged as an alternative investment vehicle for many traders and investors. As an investment tool, forex option tradingprovides both large and small investors with greater flexibility when determining the appropriate forex trading and hedging strategies to implement.
Most forex options trading is conducted via telephone as there are only a few forex brokers offering online forex option trading platforms.
Forex Option Defined - A forex option is a financial currency contract giving the forex option buyer the right, but not the obligation, to purchase or sell aspecific forex spot contract (the underlying) at a specific price (the strike price) on or before a specific date (the expiration date). The amount the forexoption buyer pays to the forex option seller for the forex option contract rights is called the forex option "premium."
The Forex Option Buyer - The buyer, or holder, of a foreign currency option has the choice to either sell the foreign currency option contract prior toexpiration, or he or she can choose to hold the foreign currency options contract until expiration and exercise his or her right to take a position in theunderlying spot foreign currency. The act of exercising the foreign currency option and taking the subsequent underlying position in the foreigncurrency spot market is known as "assignment" or being "assigned" a spot position.
The only initial financial obligation of the foreign currency option buyer is to pay the premium to the seller up front when the foreign currency option isinitially purchased. Once the premium is paid, the foreign currency option holder has no other financial obligation (no margin is required) until theforeign currency option is either offset or expires.
On the expiration date, the call buyer can exercise his or her right to buy the underlying foreign currency spot position at the foreign currency option'sstrike price, and a put holder can exercise his or her right to sell the underlying foreign currency spot position at the foreign currency option's strikeprice. Most foreign currency options are not exercised by the buyer, but instead are offset in the market before expiration.
Foreign currency options expires worthless if, at the time the foreign currency option expires, the strike price is "out-of-the-money." In simplest terms, aforeign currency option is "out-of-the-money" if the underlying foreign currency spot price is lower than a foreign currency call option's strike price, orthe underlying foreign currency spot price is higher than a put option's strike price. Once a foreign currency option has expired worthless, the foreigncurrency option contract itself expires and neither the buyer nor the seller have any further obligation to the other party.
The Forex Option Seller - The foreign currency option seller may also be called the "writer" or "grantor" of a foreign currency option contract. The sellerof a foreign currency option is contractually obligated to take the opposite underlying foreign currency spot position if the buyer exercises his right. Inreturn for the premium paid by the buyer, the seller assumes the risk of taking a possible adverse position at a later point in time in the foreigncurrency spot market.
Initially, the foreign currency option seller collects the premium paid by the foreign currency option buyer (the buyer's funds will immediately betransferred into the seller's foreign currency trading account). The foreign currency option seller must have the funds in his or her account to cover theinitial margin requirement. If the markets move in a favorable direction for the seller, the seller will not have to post any more funds for his foreigncurrency options other than the initial margin requirement. However, if the markets move in an unfavorable direction for the foreign currency optionsseller, the seller may have to post additional funds to his or her foreign currency trading account to keep the balance in the foreign currency tradingaccount above the maintenance margin requirement.
Just like the buyer, the foreign currency option seller has the choice to either offset (buy back) the foreign currency option contract in the optionsmarket prior to expiration, or the seller can choose to hold the foreign currency option contract until expiration. If the foreign currency options sellerholds the contract until expiration, one of two scenarios will occur: (1) the seller will take the opposite underlying foreign currency spot position if thebuyer exercises the option or (2) the seller will simply let the foreign currency option expire worthless (keeping the entire premium) if the strike price isout-of-the-money.
Please note that "puts" and "calls" are separate foreign currency options contracts and are NOT the opposite side of the same transaction. For everyput buyer there is a put seller, and for every call buyer there is a call seller. The foreign currency options buyer pays a premium to the foreign currencyoptions seller in every option transaction.
Forex Call Option - A foreign exchange call option gives the foreign exchange options buyer the right, but not the obligation, to purchase a specificforeign exchange spot contract (the underlying) at a specific price (the strike price) on or before a specific date (the expiration date). The amount theforeign exchange option buyer pays to the foreign exchange option seller for the foreign exchange option contract rights is called the option "premium."
Please note that "puts" and "calls" are separate foreign exchange options contracts and are NOT the opposite side of the same transaction. For everyforeign exchange put buyer there is a foreign exchange put seller, and for every foreign exchange call buyer there is a foreign exchange call seller.The foreign exchange options buyer pays a premium to the foreign exchange options seller in every option transaction.
The Forex Put Option - A foreign exchange put option gives the foreign exchange options buyer the right, but not the obligation, to sell a specificforeign exchange spot contract (the underlying) at a specific price (the strike price) on or before a specific date (the expiration date). The amount theforeign exchange option buyer pays to the foreign exchange option seller for the foreign exchange option contract rights is called the option "premium."
Please note that "puts" and "calls" are separate foreign exchange options contracts and are NOT the opposite side of the same transaction. For everyforeign exchange put buyer there is a foreign exchange put seller, and for every foreign exchange call buyer there is a foreign exchange call seller.The foreign exchange options buyer pays a premium to the foreign exchange options seller in every option transaction.
Plain Vanilla Forex Options - Plain vanilla options generally refer to standard put and call option contracts traded through an exchange (however, inthe case of forex option trading, plain vanilla options would refer to the standard, generic forex option contracts that are traded through anover-the-counter (OTC) forex options dealer or clearinghouse). In simplest terms, vanilla forex options would be defined as the buying or selling of astandard forex call option contract or a forex put option contract.
Exotic Forex Options - To understand what makes an exotic forex option "exotic," you must first understand what makes a forex option "non-vanilla."Plain vanilla forex options have a definitive expiration structure, payout structure and payout amount. Exotic forex option contracts may have a changein one or all of the above features of a vanilla forex option. It is important to note that exotic options, since they are often tailored to a specific'sinvestor's needs by an exotic forex options broker, are generally not very liquid, if at all.
Intrinsic & Extrinsic Value - The price of an FX option is calculated into two separate parts, the intrinsic value and the extrinsic (time) value.
The intrinsic value of an FX option is defined as the difference between the strike price and the underlying FX spot contract rate (American StyleOptions) or the FX forward rate (European Style Options). The intrinsic value represents the actual value of the FX option if exercised. Please notethat the intrinsic value must be zero (0) or above - if an FX option has no intrinsic value, then the FX option is simply referred to as having no (or zero)intrinsic value (the intrinsic value is never represented as a negative number). An FX option with no intrinsic value is considered "out-of-the-money," anFX option having intrinsic value is considered "in-the-money," and an FX option with a strike price at, or very close to, the underlying FX spot rate isconsidered "at-the-money."
The extrinsic value of an FX option is commonly referred to as the "time" value and is defined as the value of an FX option beyond the intrinsic value.A number of factors contribute to the calculation of the extrinsic value including, but not limited to, the volatility of the two spot currencies involved, thetime left until expiration, the riskless interest rate of both currencies, the spot price of both currencies and the strike price of the FX option. It isimportant to note that the extrinsic value of FX options erodes as its expiration nears. An FX option with 60 days left to expiration will be worth morethan the same FX option that has only 30 days left to expiration. Because there is more time for the underlying FX spot price to possibly move in afavorable direction, FX options sellers demand (and FX options buyers are willing to pay) a larger premium for the extra amount of time.
Volatility - Volatility is considered the most important factor when pricing forex options and it measures movements in the price of the underlying. Highvolatility increases the probability that the forex option could expire in-the-money and increases the risk to the forex option seller who, in turn, candemand a larger premium. An increase in volatility causes an increase in the price of both call and put options.
Delta - The delta of a forex option is defined as the change in price of a forex option relative to a change in the underlying forex spot rate. A change ina forex option's delta can be influenced by a change in the underlying forex spot rate, a change in volatility, a change in the riskless interest rate of theunderlying spot currencies or simply by the passage of time (nearing of the expiration date).The delta must always be calculated in a range of zero to one (0-1.0). Generally, the delta of a deep out-of-the-money forex option will be closer tozero, the delta of an at-the-money forex option will be near .5 (the probability of exercise is near 50%) and the delta of deep in-the-money forex optionswill be closer to 1.0. In simplest terms, the closer a forex option's strike price is relative to the underlying spot forex rate, the higher the delta because itis more sensitive to a change in the underlying rate.
